Impacts of Variation in Climatic Extremes on Sugar Cane Production in the Sugar Complexes of Ferkessedougou (Northern Côte d’Ivoire)
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The risks due to climate change heavily affect the Ivorian agriculture sector. This study aims to analyse the influence of extreme climatic parameters on sugar cane yield in the sugar complexes of Ferkessedougou. The methodological approach is based on redefining the agricultural season using the R-Instat software, and the correlation between extreme climatic parameters and sugar cane production is determined through statistical tests. The start date of the rainy season is on average May 28 in Ferkessedougou and June 4 in Korhogo, with standard deviations of 11 to 18 days. Early starts appear on May 15 for both stations, while late starts oscillate between June 30 and July 22 from 1989 to 2018. In the Ferke complexes, the rainy season lasts on average between 150 and 157 days. Late end dates are observed between November 19 and 21. The analysis of the correlation between the extreme climate indices and sugarcane yield shows coefficients of determination ranging from 46% to 67%. Also, the correlation matrix supports linear regression, confirming that the number of days of the year with precipitation ≥ 20 mm (R20 mm index) negatively influences sugar cane yield. Thus, it appears that any increase in one day of very intense rain systematically leads to a reduction in yield of 1.39 t/ha. Likewise, any increase in one consecutive dry day (CDD index) systematically leads to a decrease in 0.12 t/ha yield. Thus, this study has demonstrated that precipitation and different temperature forms can impact sugarcane yields in sugar fields. Knowledge from climatology can support informed decision-making at all levels of society.
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