CMIP6-Informed Climate Change Projections and Their Implications for Agricultural Sustainability in Hisar District, Haryana

Abstract

Climate change poses increasing risks to agricultural systems in semi-arid regions through rising temperatures, changing rainfall variability, increasing crop-water requirements and growing pressure on groundwater resources. This study assesses potential future climate-related risks to agricultural sustainability in Hisar district, Haryana, using a scenario-based framework that combines the historical climatic context of 1990– 2025 with published CMIP6-informed scenario information under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. We consider representative future periods to examine how climate-related agricultural risks progress. We translate scenario-based temperature changes into indicative crop-productivity responses using previously established Hisar-specific crop-temperature elasticities for wheat, mustard, cotton, and bajra. The assessment further examines the potential implications of warming and rainfall variability for agricultural water requirements and groundwater stress. Results indicate that wheat exhibits the greatest temperature-related sensitivity among the crops considered, followed by mustard, while cotton and bajra show comparatively lower direct temperature sensitivity. The findings also indicate that rising temperatures may increase evapotranspiration and irrigation needs, potentially intensifying groundwater extraction pressure in areas already experiencing groundwater stress. The study highlights the interconnected nature of climate, crop productivity, and agricultural water security in Hisar. It emphasises the need for heat-resilient crop planning, efficient irrigation, groundwater conservation, and integrated climate– water management. The study provides a district-level scenariobased assessment that can support future climate-resilient agricultural planning and more detailed modelling using highresolution climate, crop-water and groundwater datasets.